EUR is not a fact. It is a forecast built on assumptions.
Production history can support a useful estimate of future recovery, but the value of the forecast depends on analog quality, decline behavior, operating history and how clearly uncertainty is carried into the decision.
Precision can be misleading
A single EUR number can look authoritative while hiding a wide range of plausible outcomes. Small differences in decline assumptions, terminal behavior, downtime, stimulation quality or analog selection can materially change the forecast.
History matters before extrapolation
Early production can be influenced by choke strategy, artificial lift, curtailment, workovers, facility constraints or operational interruptions. The production curve should be understood before it is extended into the future.
Analogs should earn their place
Nearby wells are not automatically comparable. Landing interval, lateral length, spacing, completion design, pressure environment and vintage can all affect performance. A forecast is more defensible when the analog set reflects the candidate well rather than geography alone.
Uncertainty belongs in economics
Forecast uncertainty should flow into reserves, capital allocation and economic ranking. Showing a reasonable range of production and value outcomes is often more useful than forcing every candidate into one deterministic case.
Forecasting should support ranking
The purpose of EUR analysis is not to produce the largest number. It is to help compare locations and investments on a consistent basis while making the assumptions behind that comparison visible.
Well Intel AI™ is designed to connect production forecasting with the rock, completions, analog and development evidence that gives the forecast context.